As this article primarily pertains to Iran and it’s obsession with building a deliverable nuclear weapon, I’d be remiss if we didn’t begin this with a few fun facts regarding countries that already have them and what would prompt their use. The info below is from my article: Nuclear World War Three back in November, 2023 (updated and averaged out from different sources seeing as the totals differ to a small degree), beginning with…
Russia: 6,257 nuclear warheads— I find it interesting how the media uses the term winning the war in Ukraine when the absolute very best Ukraine can hope for is expelling Russia’s military from the country and perhaps, just perhaps retaking annexed regions. And while one may consider that winning, has anyone looked at Ukraine recently? No, that’s not what I would consider winning the war in Ukraine.
That being said, if Ukraine (or any other country for that matter) advanced the war into Russia, Russia would have no problem using nuclear weapons as a defensive measure and only as a last resort. You’ll find this is true for most all on this list.
United States of America: 5,550 nuclear warheads— Retaliatory and/or defensive measure and only as a last resort.
China: 410 nuclear warheads— Retaliatory and/or defensive measure and only as a last resort.
France: 290 nuclear warheads— Retaliatory and/or defensive measure and only as a last resort.
United Kingdom: 225 nuclear warheads— Retaliatory and/or defensive measure and only as a last resort.
Pakistan: 165 nuclear warheads— Retaliatory and/or defensive measure and only as a last resort.
India: 156 nuclear warheads— Retaliatory and/or defensive measure and only as a last resort.
Israel: 90 nuclear warheads— Retaliatory and/or defensive measure and only as a last resort.
*North Korea: none, but material to build 40-50 nuclear warheads— [Update: From what I understand, they now have 50.] No one really pays that much attention to North Korea. That is unless you’re South Korea. For decades, North Korea has made threat after threat after threat and that’s all they were. Why? Because North Korea knows beyond a shadow of a doubt that should they purposefully invade South Korea, their government (and most likely their country) would no longer exist which is why you (for the most part) don’t see anything happening other than threats.
** Iran: none, at the moment but they’re trying— This should be the most concerning of all. See segment regarding Iran.
The only way the world goes into a global nuclear meltdown is if it involves China, Russia and the U.S. and one comes to the conclusion there is no hope for their country and their populations. Like I said, their thoughts will be that if they go down, so does everyone else. When you think about it, makes sense. Remember? Mutually assured destruction. By virtue of that, no country is going to be the first to start the dominos falling using nuclear weapons offensively. And let’s not forget that should they make this horrible decision; their economies will cease to exist and by extension, themselves. Which brings us to…
Iran—
To say the relationship between the U.S. and Iran hasn’t been that good over the last ohhhhh, 60 years or so (although you can take it back a few years earlier to 1953 when the CIA and it’s British counterpart threw out Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh of Iran by way of an orchestrated coup and installed the Shaw) would be an understatement. Why? Back then, Mossadegh wanted to nationalize it’s oil industry and the UK (who were controlling Iran’s oil) wanted none of that. Installing the Shaw and distributing tons of cash to all the right people would remedy that little problem. After the Shaw took power, Iran and the Brits did come to an agreement in regard to Iranian oil..
Life in Iran was going about as well as to be expected until the Shaw got a little too big for his britches after close to 25 years of rule beginning in the early 1970’s. Even those in the west were growing tired of him. By the late 70’s the people said enough was enough and the Shaw was history going into exile in Egypt. Welcome back radical Islam rule. Next thing you know, students stormed the U.S. Embassy and took hostages which pretty much ended Jimmy Carter’s bid for a second term for his utter failure in getting them released. Iran knew what they could get away with when it came to Carter. Reagan on the other hand was a different story which is why the hostages were released just hours after President Ronald Reagan delivered his inaugural address.
Three final comments I’d like to make in this brief history lesson. The first being ever since the ouster of the Shaw, there has been a hatred from Iran’s leadership including a portion of it’s population directed towards the United States. The second being that Reagan himself wanted nothing to do with the middle-east saying something to the effect the radical Islamic fundamentalists running Iran (including Lebanon) were basically nuts. He’d do business when warranted but that’s as far as it would go. The third and most surprising of all was Iran’s quest for a nuclear weapon goes back a lot further than you’d imagine. Even before the 1953 coup as Mossadegh himself was interested in acquiring the technology to build their own.
Now, before we go any further, I’d like to say that not all Muslims are bad people who fervently believe that death to America is a good thing. There are many who believe in live and let live as the overwhelming majority of the rest of us do. But this was a very difficult thing to do after the 9-11 attacks. You know, it’s the old one rotten apple can spoil the whole barrel concept. It’s not so bad regarding Muslims here legally in America but Iran is a completely different story.
The event that took place October 7, 2023 with the murdering over 1000 men, women and children in unspeakable ways reinforced these sentiments. I’ve written three articles on this so for more info, please read them if you haven’t already. (1) Israel and The Middle East (2) Israel and The Middle East: Part 2 (3) Lebanon, Gaza, Yemen and Iran— Commonalities.
So, let’s try an answer the most important question.
Why?
Why on earth is Iran spending billions of dollars trying to build nuclear weapons? Especially when their country is going to shit because of their effort. It’s a sure bet that Iran’s nuclear ambitions and all the sanctions against their country for doing so is causing needless suffering to it’s people but the leadership seem to be totally fine with it as is Hamas is after it’s attack on Israel. Gaza is a wasteland now and Hamas appears to let the residents (including themselves in Gaza die before they give up. Is that what the residents of Iran (Lebanon included) want also? The most baffling part of all is Iran has to know their making a nuclear weapon will never happen. That is unless they already have though I’d find that difficult to believe with the capabilities of U.S. and foreign intelligence so will go under the auspice that as of yet, they don’t. Besides the U.S. making it crystal clear Iran will never have one, I guarantee you Israel will make damn sure of it with or without the blessing of the U.S.. Yet Iran defiantly continues. I can only think of three reasons to answer the question… Why?
1— Control of the Middle East
After Iran’s nationalizing of it’s oil industry in 1954, it soon became one of if not the richest states in the Middle East. So much so they loaned the UK close to one billion dollars which from what I understand has still yet to be fully repaid although that’s really not the point. The point is that Iran had more money than you could shake an oil barrel at. But as I said earlier, with all that money came ambition and the Shaw wanted to have control of the Middle East or at the very least, be the one pulling all the strings. And now? What better way to do that than having a few nuclear weapons at your disposal?
If a conventional war ever broke out against Iran, they wouldn’t hesitate to use nuclear weapons to fight it especially if there was the remote possibility of Iran’s losing. For that fact alone, I doubt any of Iran’s neighbors would do anything to provoke them. Even if Iran started it. They’d feel the risk was too great. That is unless Israel became involved and the problem is, eventually— Israel will become involved. Perhaps not right away, but… eventually. Result? Iran no longer exists.
2— World War 3
Iran uses nuclear weapons to provoke a world war doing it’s best to draw in other nuclear nations. Why? Because Trump is in office and sure to add more Islamic nations to his Abraham Accords. To Iran, this will be the straw that breaks the camels back. The only way to sabotage this is through war. (Dismal failure so far.) And the only way to influence it’s neighbors not to join in with the accords is the threat of nuclear annihilation.
3— A Form of a Suicide Vest
When you have a country like Iran, whose government is run by people who sincerely believe in a version of Islam which states that all (including other Muslims) who don’t share their beliefs are not true Muslims and their deaths along with the rest of non-believers are equally justified— who also believe that their own deaths (according to their religious beliefs) are nothing more than martyrdom run amok should scare the shit out of the rest of the world should they attain nuclear weapons as part of their arsenals. Out of all the nations having nuclear weapons, this is the one who would push that button for religious principles.
Look at it this way. If Hamas can do what it did back on October 7th, 2023, do you actually believe Iran wouldn’t do the exact same thing only with nuclear weapons if they had them? And believe it or not, yes— they would have no problem sacrificing their country including a large portion of it’s population in the process. They’ve already proven that in Gaza.
Down to the Wire
Throughout Trump’s first campaign including his first term in office, he has stated emphatically that Iran will not have nuclear weapons and from what I understand, he was damn close to securing a deal towards the end. As he said, Iran is broke, they have no choice other than to make a deal. Trump likely believed he’d have more than enough time to finish it after his re-election. Then the unthinkable happened. After a rigged election, he was out of office. Biden ignored it all and for Iran, it was back to business raking in billions selling it’s oil again because Biden refused to enforce the sanctions placed on Iranian oil and more importantly, Iran continued it’s nuclear program growing closer to it’s objective with each passing year.
Solutions
It’s now been eight years since Trump’s statement regarding Iran and nuclear weapons and according to all the news outlets— it appears Iran is just months away from success. It also appears Trump is back to negotiating a deal but the question is. Is he out of time? Is Iran just stalling until they make the announcement they’ve succeeded in building the bomb? If they ever do make that announcement, that will change everything, and I mean everything. So what happens next? Here are a few scenarios:
1— The Final Ultimatum
Right out of the George W. Bush playbook only this time, we don’t have to wonder whether or not Iran will have a weapon of mass destruction. Trump gives Iran a deadline and a list of actions that must be taken by Iran to prove they’re immediately dismantling their nuclear program to include outside people to verify everything. If they refuse, try to stall or miss the deadline by one hour, the U.S. bombs the shit out of every single nuclear site they’re aware of. No boots on the ground required. We won’t have to orchestrate another coup. Trust me, once the dust clears, the people of Iran will do it for us.
2— Israel’s Green Light
Israel has been chomping at the bit to destroy Iran’s nuclear anything. They would have already accomplished this if it weren’t for Trump asking them to hold back just a little longer. Trump’s negotiations fail and give Israel the green light to do as they please. If they require support from the U.S., they’ve got it. When it comes to Iran’s nuclear program, Israel (after what it’s been through) doesn’t mind at all being the bad guy and perhaps (if we’re being honest)— that’s the smartest way to go.
3— End it now
Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu are tired of playing Iran’s game. Without notice, they go in and take out all nuclear program including all ballistic missile sites in one fail swoop saying to Iran… “feel free to give us a call later, we’re in no hurry, now.” Seeing as Iran is no longer a threat.
This is where I’d normally end the article with a catchy last line but then I thought to myself…. there’s an actual possibility of killing….
Three Birds with One Stone
and it very well could work. Not only that, it could be accomplished in less than sixty days.
Bird One: Ukraine
Trump gets a message to Zelenskyy alone that he has thirty days to secure an end to the war with Russia. At this point, he’s not only tired of all the bullshit and demands and he has too much on his plate to screw around with him any longer. He tells him if a deal isn’t made, all bets are off, no more shipments of anything to Ukraine from that moment on and that Trump will be more than content making a rare earth minerals deal with his replacement or even Putin if he has to. Result? Zelenskyy makes the deal ending the war.
Bird Two: Hamas and Gaza
After the bombing if Iran’s nuclear sites begin, Trump or Netanyahu with Trumps blessing gives Hamas 7 days to return all hostages living or dead and surrender unconditionally. If they choose not to, there will be no safe quarter for Hamas fighters or leadership to hide or survive. The only risk in this will be if Hamas chooses 32 virgins over their own lives and the lives of the remaining hostages. Either way, it’s over and closure can begin. That being said, I kinda doubt that will happen. Especially after witnessing Iran in flames. Cooler, more political Muslims in charge of Gaza will choose to live to fight another day.
Bird Three: Iran
Iran’s nuclear goal is their hill to die on. In fact, deal or not, the fate of Iran’s leadership is sealed. Why? Because they can’t be trusted. They never could be. I can say with confidence that if the U.S. or Israel does attack Iran’s nuclear sites as a last resort, Iran can kiss their leadership good-bye.
I don’t know about you…. but—
Sounds good to me!
