It’s All Relative?
Was it ever? It sure used to be for a short period of time after World War Two. That’s why they called it “the baby boomer years.” During that time, a milkman could not only provide for his family but also afford to send his three daughters to college on his income alone. Once the kids were grown, if Mom wanted to get a job, her income was considered pure gravy. Interest rates between 1960 and 1976 were between 1.5 and 2.7% with a few spikes in-between. There were nowhere near the government subsidies handed out to people like we see today and most families still did fine.
The cost of living was a whole lot closer to wages which lasted up until the early 70’s. The first hit came In October 1973, when the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced that it was implementing a total oil embargo against countries that had supported Israel at any point during the 1973 Yom Kippur War. Obviously, the U.S. was one of those countries. The cost of energy skyrocketed. Lines at gas stations were blocks long resulting in even/odd days depending on the last number of one’s licence plate for purchasing/rationing gas. It was also the reason President Carter dropped the national speed limit to 55 mph.
And it wasn’t just gas. Seeing that oil was a key component in millions of manufactured products. Everything went up. Next we had the peak oil hoax/scare which has been around since the 1940’s. Below are a few headlines over the years. Kinda makes you think about the warning AOC and the chicken little’s on the Left keep harping on about. Speaking of that, according to AOC, shouldn’t we all be dead from climate change in a few years? While you’re chuckling, see headlines below.
1945: Just thirteen years left
— December 10, 1945
Times Recorder (Zanesville, Ohio)
1956: Ten to fifteen years until peak oil
— March 9, 1957
Corpus Christi Times (Corpus Christi, TX)
1966: Gone in ten years
— August 3, 1966
Brandon Sun (Brandon, Manitoba)
1972: U.S. oil depleted in twenty years
— May 1972
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
1977: Oil will peak by the early 90s
— 1977 US Department of Energy
Organization Act
1980: In the year 2000
— October 17, 1980
Syracuse Post Standard (Syracuse, NY)
1996: Peak oil likely by 2020
— Richard Smalley,
Nobel Laureate in Chemistry, 1996
2002: Global peak by the year 2010
— May 25, 2002
Index Journal(Greenwood, SC)
2007: Sometime between now and 2040
— February 2007
GAO Report
Now in 2025, eighty years later, we’re supposed to have more available oil than you can shake a stick at. Imagine that. But consider this. All those headlines above did was create fear and by extension— facilitated the rise in the price of oil and by extension— just about everything else— that is until there was so much oil, the price plummeted (especially during Trump’s first term.) Granted, the Covid-19 pandemic played a role to be sure but afterwards, the price of gas remained reasonable until Joe Biden declared war on fossil fuels. As expected, the price of gas soared yet again. When it comes to increasing prices, never let fear go to waste. It’s the perfect excuse guaranteed for at least two to three weeks of additional income for corporations (and the stock market).
One last thing about this small history lesson. Before the 1973 OPEC oil embargo, one never saw the swing in gas prices plaguing the U.S. over the last 25 years. (At least.) These days, it’s not uncommon to see the price of gas jump thirty to fifty cents a gallon while you’re sleeping. Back then, it fluctuated five to 15 cents in either direction. (Unless there was a gas war between two gas stations on opposite sides of a street). And remember— back then, you got your gas pumped for you, your windshield washed, oil and tire pressure checked for no additional cost. Ahhh the good old days.
The cost of energy plays a core fundamental role in just about every economy, especially ours. It’s the first domino in a line of issues that needs to be tipped over for by doing so, sets into motion many other domino’s from manufacturing to shipping affecting not only the cost of living but our quality of life. If I had to guess, I’d say that by the end of 2025, energy prices will decrease dramatically. How dramatically depends on whether we or Israel blow up Iran’s nuclear program. (Had to add that caveat). But, if no other choice is found, has to be done. Either way, energy costs will decrease.
On to the Financials
Remember the savings and loan crisis back in the 1980’s? It was the perfect storm (or should I say clusterfuck) between Thrifts including Savings and Loan’s, the Fed and Congress which in many instances included outright fraud. Needless to say, it resulted in the failures leading to the closing of 1,043 banks that held $519 billion in assets. The total cost of taxpayers by the end of 1999 was $123.8 billion with an additional $29.1 billion of losses imposed onto the thrift industry. And remember, that’s 1999 money. Just goes to show ya… when in comes to U.S. financial institutions, it’s always somethin’ (He said using his best “Roseanne Roseannadanna” accent.
Then we come to….
Welcome Ronald Reagan
After a disastrous four years of Jimmy Carter, Reagan was a much needed breath of fresh air. Even with the “Iran/Contra” scandal, the Reagan years were filled with financial bliss which is the primary reason he’s thought of as one of the best American Presidents of all time. It should be noted, his presidency began with a somewhat rocky start having to fix what Carter had left him and then boom! The economy was on a roll and remained that way throughout his two terms. Sounds familiar… huh?
Glass-Steagall
Jump ahead a dozen or so years to 1999 when President Bill Clinton reverses the Glass-Steagall act. What was Glass-Steagall you wonder? In a nutshell, It’s the Depression-era bank regulation that kept different types of financial institutions separate. Meaning for the most part, only commercial banks were allowed to invest in the stock market. A lot of rich people immediately became a whole lot richer with that move but it came with serious risks coming to fruition with the housing market crash in 2007 where millions of Americans lost their savings, their jobs, even their homes but guess what— the banks were bailed out, infuriating the public. Ever seen the movie The Big Short? Watch it.
The China Affect
Was the writing on the wall way back in 2000 when President Bill Clinton allowed China’s entrance into the WTO (World Trade Organization)? Keep in mind, this was accomplished via The U.S.–China Relations Act of 2000 passed by Congress and signed into law by Clinton on October 10, 2000 and since day one, China has broken just about every rule the WTO had in place. But damn! Look at all that cheap shit China was bringing to the U.S. and other countries. Could that have played a role in why WTO rules were so rarely enforced? Possibly. Ironically, Republicans were in control of both houses of Congress back then so the blame is on their shoulders. Thank God they finally got their shit together. Well, most of them. But the damage had already been done.
Addicted to cheap
China’s entrance into the WTO began a wonderful love affair between cheap prices and American consumers and no one loves them more than Walmart and Target. I could be wrong but I was a tad surprised to find out that Target imports a higher percentage of the “made in China” products they sell than Walmart. Not a huge difference, but a difference nonetheless. Below are just a couple fun facts in regard to Walmart and China.
What percent of Walmart’s global product suppliers are in China?
Of Wal-Mart’s 6,000 global suppliers, experts estimate that as many as 80 percent are based in China.
How much does Walmart import from China?
U.S. goods imports from China fell by a stark 16.2 percent between 2018 and 2019, as the effects of Washington’s aggressive stance towards Beijing takes effect. Currently, Walmart estimates Chinese suppliers make up 70-80 percent of its U.S. merchandise, according to the Alliance for American Manufacturing.
How much will U.S. tariffs affect Chinese goods?
See the segment on tariffs.
Economy vs Economics vs Cost of Living vs Quality of Life
To the average individual, they don’t give a rat’s ass about the first two. (Unless they work in the profession.) Primarily because it’s out of their hands. They can’t control it and are not remotely involved in it’s structure. But they are concerned about the cost of living, especially… their cost of living. And in many instances, they can’t control that either. Energy goes up— you’re shit out of luck. Pay the bill. The same could be said with everything we purchase on a regular basis. Meaning daily, weekly or monthly. Sure, we can cut our energy bills by using less, changing what we eat to cheaper foods… etc. What that does is affect our quality of life. American diets have changed drastically over the last 20 years. Food items we used to purchase on a regular basis are now considered a monthly treat, even a rare luxury. Why do you think there are so many on food stamps? They seem to be the only ones who can afford it. Back then, (because I’m an old fish, I call it recent memory) shrimp was considered a poor man’s lobster. One could purchase a fifty pound box of frozen beef ribs for 66 cents a pound. Fresh hamburger was 89 cents a pound. A huge pot roast or juicy London broil steak that could be the main course for a family of five was easily affordable on a weekly basis by just about everyone. So what the hell happened? We’re getting to that…
Supply and Demand
Let’s talk for a moment on having a place to live. We’ll use as an example a town of 50,000. Rents were reasonable. Pretty much fit in with the needs of the town and it’s economy including the necessities of life but here we’re focusing on rents. No complaints for the most part until 25,000 additional people descend on the town all looking for a place to live (and work). Next thing you know, the rents skyrocket. The owners don’t overly care because of the boom to their wallets while renters have to move out because they can no longer afford the increase. Many decide to move out of a town they’ve loved and resided in for most of their lives entirely because their new cost of living became unaffordable. Capitalism at it’s best but, is that really what it is? Especially when a large portion of the newly arrived are subsidized by the federal government? To be honest, that’s a whole other story in itself but this article is long enough as it is. Perhaps another time. If you haven’t figured it out yet, I’m referring to the 15 to 20 million illegal aliens President Biden just waved on through because he said there was nothing he could do about it unless new legislation was passed. I guess Trump proved him to be the liar he always was.
Between all the freebe’s handed out to 12 million additional people in the U.S. (completely unprepared for such an influx including the knowledge that many would be leaving when Trump was re-elected) they still needed a place to live and food to eat. At least for the time being. When you add medical care, schools etc, you wonder why there was such and impact to the cost of living over the past four years?
If Trump were able to wave a magic wand deporting every single individual Biden illegally and intentionally allowed into this country during Joe Biden’s term, I can say with confidence our economy would be in a lot better shape than it is today. There is a solution though. I wrote about it back in March 2022 titled Illegal Immigration: Solving the Border Crisis. The article was meant for Trump knowing he would win back the Presidency. So far, he’s done everything right except one thing. Here’s a brief excerpt:
The following is my proposal.
1. Legislation is enacted requiring all individuals residing in the US illegally, including all those with a court date or a notice to report or appear to receive a court date for their immigration or asylum hearings before a judge, to contact their local immigration office within 60 days. All those failing to do so within the time allotted (no matter how long they’ve resided in the US) will be immediately deported and forfeiting any future opportunity of legal immigration or asylum in the US if and when discovered by authorities.
2. A commission be set up immediately to determine the following:
2A— Within 90 days, report how many individuals reside in the US without permission. This includes all who have been allowed to stay in the US while seeking asylum or immigration through Biden’s catch and release policy.
2B— Once a number has been agreed upon, a determination will be made on how many cases could be heard and adjudicated by an immigration judge per day.
2C— Once this number has been agreed upon, a determination will be made as to the number of immigration judges required to resolve all immigration and asylum cases within two years based on the average time it takes to rule on a case.
3. Further legislation enacted to hire the required number of judges including laying out all legal groundwork regarding procedure in litigation of immigration or asylum cases so there will be a clear understanding to all involved before cases are heard. Including anything regarding an appeal process, if appeals are granted.
4. Once all the legalities are worked out and agreed to, all those who contacted an immigration office will be given a new court date to appear before a judge to hear and rule on their case. Those who failed to do so will not be allowed to proceed and have their cases heard, no matter how strong their case might be or how long they’ve resided in the US. No excuses.
5. Any further legislation passed by Congress affecting those seeking asylum or legal immigration will be applied on a case by case basis to all awaiting their cases to be heard.
6. The length of time residing in the US along with work history, family, criminal background checks etc. will be given additional consideration regarding their case.
7. Those whose applications for immigration have been denied will be given an additional two weeks to settle all affairs and leave the country on their own volition or allow themselves to be deported by the Government.
8. Those who refuse to leave or go into hiding will forfeit all future opportunity to apply for legal entry including asylum into the United States.
9. Anyone illegally entering the United States during this moratorium will be immediately deported. If caught a second time, in addition to being immediately deported, they forfeit all future opportunity to apply for legal entry into the United States.
Seeing as I’m no lawyer or politician for that matter, I’m certain I’ve left a few things out. But overall, this is the way to go in order to finally resolve the backlog of immigration cases in the US. [end excerpt] In other words begin all deportations now. Sure, you can prioritize the worst of the worst, but if there’s one empty seat on that plane, fill it. Last question— Liberals keep talking about due process. Where the hell was due process when Biden allowed millions into the U.S. without it? In my humble opinion, if there are already over one million court orders to deport, these people who have already had their “due process” should be deported— ASAP. I would much rather see ten thousand illegal aliens (or more) with orders to deport each day actually deported than just 19 gang-bangers. If you catch a few gang members in the process then so much the better. (Sorry for the sidetrack) OK— back to the economy.
Analogy: “We’re just about down to paper”
In other words, what does it cost to produce something. In essence, it all boils down to the following. (1) The cost of materials (2) The cost of production (3) The cost of administration, advertising and distribution. Anything above those three is profit. And how does one determine profit? Easy. (1) Supply and demand which consists of (a) competition and (b) what the market will bear. Sounds pretty simple, right? At least one would think so. It’s pretty damn straightforward. Wrong! The two (by far) largest mitigating factors in the rise in prices of manufactured goods sold worldwide are energy and governments. Don’t like something millions choose to consume on a regular basis? No problem, we’ll tax it out of existence. Hate fossil fuel? Even though it’s used in some form or another in 99% of all products, fine— we’ll cancel all contracts, permits and put a choke hold on where it can be acquired. And don’t forget— there’s nothing like a good war to put the kibosh on exports like fertilizer and the like. And mergers? They’re nothing more than taking out the competition to boost profits. Grocery store mergers are a good example. Speaking of profit… (oh and by the way for the curious, the term “we’re just about down to paper” is in reference to the printing industry. Meaning— one can only fudge with profit so much before you begin to lose money. Unless of course you do it by way of….
The loss leader
When you think of the term loss leader and that’s if you actually know what it means— you think of Thanksgiving and Christmas. What do those two holidays have in common? I wrote about it in my article: The BOF Guide to Inflation— Easing the Pain. Here’s the excerpt:
Ham and Turkey: Generally speaking, there are only two times a year when ham and turkey are at rock bottom prices. Christmas and Thanksgiving. You might be able to throw in Easter but that’s hit and miss. While I have found most turkeys are for the most part the same no matter what brand you buy. You can’t say the same about ham. I’ve bought some that were great while others turned out to be really salty. Either way, you still won’t find them cheaper than on those two holidays. Time to pig out! And if you’re smart, you can have those two meats for breakfast, lunch and dinner well beyond Thanksgiving and Christmas thanks to our friend, the freezer. [end excerpt] but if you want to save a lot of money, read the article.
So, what does ham and turkey have to do with loss leaders? It’s because during those two holidays, grocery stores sell them for less than they paid. They do this to get the customer in the store knowing most will purchase other needs while they’re there. The practice with these two (and other products) during certain times of the year are proven winners since this has been going on for decades.
Artificially Controlled Markets
Diamonds are a girls best friend? The diamond market is one of the best examples I can offer. It was always believed if diamond suppliers released the true availability on the market, the price would plummet. Diamond companies have strict rules on the quantity of diamonds released each year in order to keep the price high. To an extent, I guess the same could be said about everything. Produce too much, the price goes down. To little, the price goes up. Supply and demand rules the day in all but when discussing diamonds compared to food, there is no comparison seeing one is completely elective and the other is perishable and required for life itself.
Stocks
Knowing pretty much nothing about how the now ultra complex stock markets works today other than what I hear on the news, I’m compelled to add a brief comment. Back in the days of J. P. Morgan, John D. Rockefeller, Cornelius Vanderbilt, Andrew Carnegie and other men who basically built this country, the American stock market was about as wild west as the real wild west. If they did today what they did back then, I’m certain they’d all be in prison. Or would they? I say that seeing that compared to crimes related to the stock market against other crime, very few if any land in prison. They just pay an astronomical fine and they’re on their way. Then again— if it weren’t for the people listed above, what would our country look like today?
The other day, we witnessed a 2000 plus point drop in the DOW which pundits say means trillions of dollars were just wiped away. You have to ask— how can that be? They called it a sell-off. OK, so… those who panicked first and sold made a whole lot of money depending on what was sold and how long it was owned. Those on the end of the line who panicked and sold most likely lost the most money. Those who didn’t sell at all lost absolutely nothing. The only way one loses money in anything is if you sell something for less than you paid for it although there are times when it’s a really good idea to bail before what you own becomes worthless for any reason. I’d leave that up to people who are much smarter than me.
Now, interestingly enough, a day or two later, stocks returned to just about normal. Some said it was a record day of trading. What that tells me is there are some ultra rich people out there who probably made millions in that 24 to 48 hour period buying back all that devalued stock. I’m also certain others continued to lose money which is the main reason I don’t play that game although if I were to, I’d go in for the long haul instead of the quick buck. Some are geniuses at the quick buck. Sadly, I’m not.
Is this the stock market of 1929? I don’t believe so but that doesn’t necessarily mean the U.S can’t fall into a depression that would make the crash of 1929 look like a picnic seeing as the U.S. is 37 TRILLION dollars in debt. Think about it— we’re flushing one trillion dollars each year right down the toilet in interest payments. The only reason we haven’t ended up like Greece was between 2010 and 2017 and the fourteen austerity packages they were basically forced to pass in order to stay afloat in the eyes of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and likely others is the simple fact that the U.S. dollar is the world reserve currency. If it wasn’t, well… perish the thought, right? Let’s just say it would take a lot to kill the U.S. economically but being 37 trillion in debt, we’re not only well on our way but getting closer by the year and the day the rest of the world makes the decision to find another world reserve currency will be the day America as we know it ends and Globalist step in.
The Trump Affect
After four (count’em) four years of Biden tearing down just about every fabric of the United States (by way of those in the shadows who controlled him) while the media (for four years) have said “nothing to see here folks— everything is just peachy,” or they stick with their deep state playbook by down-playing the issue or refuse to cover it entirely, I guess American voters weren’t buying what the media was selling. Donald Trump made his intentions crystal clear right from the beginning regarding what his agenda would be if elected and if there was one thing America learned through his first term in office, it was he does what he says he’ll do. He easily wins the election and the gears within the Administrative State (assisted by liberal media) immediately went into full speed. The trouble is— prices are now beginning to fall. The only hurdle left (for the most part) are rents, interest rates and groceries.
But simply bringing down prices is not enough. It’s like slapping a band-aid on a wound that’s not allowed to heal. Why? Because just about everything connected to the price of goods has a habit of fluctuating especially when governments are involved. In the analogy above, we talked about what it costs to produce something whether it’s steel or corn. There is always a bottom line before one begins to lose money. This is where governments step in and replace or manufacture profits by way of subsidies, tax incentives, grants, manipulating their currency and probably a hundred other ways I haven’t thought of to allow competitive pricing or unfairly uncut others. At this point, tariffs don’t really play a role in this because governments get the money from them, not the companies making the products being tariffed. That is unless monies from tariffs are used to prop up or subsidize said companies.
I wrote an article back in September of last year titled :Trumps Tariffs, In a nutshell where I did my best to explain it all. This was before the election so I wasn’t exactly sure what would take place after he won but I was damn close. So let’s boil it all down for the reasoning behind them for the goal is pretty simple. As I said at the end of the article:
Trump’s tariffs are designed with two goals. First, to bring countries to the negotiating table in order to create a more level playing field in regard to trade. Secondly and equally important is to warn other more specific countries that if they want to do business in the U.S.— their governments better get their shit together. [end excerpt]
And this is exactly what Trump is doing. One thing you have to keep in mind when or even if prices increase from tariffs— just don’t buy the product or get ahead of it and buy extra before increases take affect. See? Problem solved. Remember, this is temporary. When eggs got up over five dollars a dozen, I refused to buy them. Believe it or not, before Biden, I could buy an 18 count of eggs for $1.21. And yes, finally the price of eggs is decreasing. Not to $1.21 (yet) but at least to the point I will purchase them again after a hard swallow. I haven’t bought bacon in years and I love bacon. Don’t get me wrong, my refusal to purchase bacon is out of pure principle. Other ways to save a lot of money is by reading my article The BOF Guide to Inflation: Easing the Pain. Might just find it helpful. Trade deals not only help and increase the stability of our economy but has the potential to drastically increase the wealth of other smaller countries as we dissolve our trade deficit with China to a more reasonable and equitable level
With Trump’s 100 days in office ending April 30th, as in his first term, you have to be amazed with what he’s been able to accomplish in the midst of an intense war between him and the administrative state. Trump and his team knew this would happen. Everything has not only been expected, preparations have been made well in advance to prepare for it and this includes the activist judges. As I said in my previous article Judge Shopping— The Primary Goal, [excerpt] Instead of waiting, he threw it ALL out there at once. Anything he and his advisors thought there was even a remote possibility of being challenged in court, he ordered it knowing that challenges would take time and time is in short supply when it’s your final term in office. By doing so right out of the gate, he not only knew there was time to prevail over them but more than enough time to get the ball rolling afterwards. This is why the border wall was never completed during his first term. The clock ran out. I wrote about this years ago in an article titled Lawyers, Courts and the Clock. To date, this was one of the smartest moves Trump has made. Removing all frivolous legal roadblocks Democrats continuously throw against Trump in order to delay his agenda as soon as humanly possible will give Trump the ability, and time to actually accomplish them whether it’s illegal immigration and deportations, tariffs, birthright citizenship, withholding funds from Sanctuary Cities or certain learning institutions for failing to comply with legal executive orders. (Just to name a few.) While liberal news declares one Trump loss after another in courts, he, for the most part pretty much wins every battle in the court that has the final say. (The U.S.Supreme Court.) The time consuming part is reaching that court. [end excerpt] One last thought to consider about these 675 Federal District Court Judges (primarily the ones gone rogue.) While the U.S. Constitution does state the U.S. Supreme Court is a coequal branch of government, it says nothing about the authority of lower courts other than they can exist by way of congress. Meaning, lower courts do not have equal authority of the Supreme Court therefore can’t rule on anything outside of their jurisdiction and notably… only on cases within their jurisdictions by those with legal standing to bring them. At least that’s my understanding. These rogue judges will be shut down soon enough.
As far as the markets are concerned, don’t fool yourselves and keep your panties on. You’ll find that with each negotiated deal with other countries Trump announces, the market will not only stabilize, its value will increase. This is one thing Democrats and the deep state fears the most but it will happen so if the market tanks one day for all you rich people out there, this is when you buy because once the word gets out that Trump’s plan is working, it will be too late. And don’t forget, Trump has already secured investment commitments by countries totaling over 7 trillion dollars with I’m certain more to follow. And what comes with 7 trillion in investments? Hundreds of thousands of well paying jobs. As far as the national debt is concerned— here’s an idea. Once the international trade issue is solved, why not take every dime the U.S. collects in tariffs and use it to help pay off the debt because if we don’t do something, that hammer will fall.
Recently, we’ve seen prices are coming back down. Again— once the trade deals are accomplished, everything will be better than simply back to normal. Think of it, all in less than 100 days. You may not believe it at the moment but have patience and give Trump a little time to do his job.
The Golden Age is now within sight.
Not too shabby… huh?
